Why Israel Won't Attack Iran

Iran, Netanayhu's endless hobby horse. For Bibi Its been a personal obsession that has clouded his judgement for far too long. Firstly Netanyahu has been warning of Iran's capacity to acquire nuclear weapons ' within the next 2-3 years ' for the last 20 years. So the current ratcheting of rhetoric is no surprise in light of the soon to be released IAEA report. When Israel has attacked it's neighbour's nuclear facilities (Iraq's in 1982) it has never preannounced it to the world. To do so would be a military mistake matched only by the disastrous Gaza massacre of 2009 which was televised round the clock to over a billion muslims. Any attack on Iran would not be sanctioned by the US intelligence community who have gone out of their way to tame by making public the nature of Israel's exaggerated claims. An attack on Iran would send the price of oil and gas rocketing and tip the already shaky world economy into depression. Military analysis of a conventional airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities by computer simulation have shown that they are likely to be ineffective however there is a risk of radiation which could affect Saudi Arabia and Israel itself. The political situation in Syria and Iran do not lend themselves to a foreign power emboldening the incumbents Ahmadinejad and Assad. These protaganists would see a declaration of war as a welcome exit strategy from their domestic woes. Furthermore the Arab Spring has made the position of other muslim countries in the region less predictable. Rulers in countries such as Pakistan and Turkey can no longer afford to ignore the will of their people. The latter point is made more pertinent by the Iraq debacle and the now famous concoction of proof for WMD's. The rise of a resource hungry China and the resultant decline of America's status as the world's only superpower means that Israel no longer has the carte blanche it once did to act with petulant impunity. Furthermore Iran has the capacity to strike back with their investment in rocket technology. Though they are no match for Israel's military might, their allies in south Lebanon and Syria have given them a geo-political bargaining chip. Their is also no evidence of support for a strike from the increasing divided jewish lobby outside Israel. Israel has derived it's might from domination of the US political system which ensures that it receives close to $6 billion in aid from the USA. While a politically savvy African-American president knows better than to cross the israel lobby he will also be mindful that there is growing unease at the amount of foreign aid being doled out abroad when money is tight at home. There are also increasing grassroot movements that are voicing concerns about special interests and how the tiny state of israel manages to receive more in foreign aid than the entire poverty stricken continent of Africa. Ultimately Israel is no more likely to attack Iran than vice-versa. Why? Because these two counries need eachother. The ability to attack Israel for Iran is their best defense against a superpower from making a predatory move on it's resource rich state and for Israel 'the imminent threat' ensures the lucrative $ 6billion dollar every year of foreign aid. Ehud Barak recently mentioned in an interview with the BBC that they don't get to choose their neighbours if they did they would choose Canada. The irony being is that they did choose their neighbours in 1948 and financially the constant antagonism serves them all too well.